Data model by Quintel / ETM

The energy transition has far-reaching consequences for households, businesses and governments. Choices about energy directly affect the affordability, security of supply and sustainability of our energy provision, and therefore affect everyone. Precisely because these choices have major societal impact, it is essential that those involved have access to factual and reliable information about the possible options and their consequences.

Powerplay was developed to make the energy system understandable in an accessible yet factual way. Not to advocate positions, but to provide insight into the coherence and consequences of choices within the energy system. For this reason, an independent and broadly validated data model was chosen for the development of Powerplay: the open-source Energy Transition Model (ETM) by Quintel. The ETM forms the substantive and computational basis for the outcomes and insights that players encounter during the game, and ensures that decisions in Powerplay are based on verifiable and realistic data.

Would you like to read more about how the government, grid operators or planning agencies use the ETM? Then read more here 

Why the ETM as the basis for Powerplay?

Powerplay aims to give players insight into the coherence and complexity of the energy system. The ETM is particularly suitable for this, because it does not put a single technology or sector at the centre, but models the entire system in its mutual coherence. It shows how choices in, for example, mobility, the built environment or industry affect energy consumption, infrastructure and the associated CO₂ emissions.

By using the ETM, Powerplay can:

• Show factual and substantiated outcomes.
• Provide insight into the system effects of policy choices.
• Avoid presenting simplistic or one-sided solutions.

Simplification of the data model for Powerplay

The ETM contains highly detailed data and calculation rules. For use in Powerplay, this model has been simplified so that it remains playable (immediate response) and understandable. This simplification has been carried out carefully and has been reviewed by Quintel. The review found no major deviations in the results generated by Powerplay.

Important principles in the simplification of the calculation model are:

• All starting values are taken from the ETM (such as energy consumption, emission factors and conversion ratios).
• Measures and choices in Powerplay were first calculated in the ETM and then validated.
• Components that do not directly contribute to Powerplay's learning objectives have been left out of the calculation model.

Important principles in the simplification of the calculation model are:

The simplification does not change the underlying logic and has also been confirmed by the ETM/Quintel.

Simplification of the ETM for Powerplay

Calculating with annual averages

The ETM makes calculations on an hourly basis, which gives it a very high level of detail. To make Powerplay accessible, clear and playable, annual averages are used. This simplification has no impact on the underlying system logic and is in line with the principles of the ETM.

To show results from variable sources such as wind, sun and energy surpluses, large datasets have been analysed and summarised in a parabolic approximation. This keeps the outcomes within a margin of around 5% of the ETM results.

Heat networks

Heat networks are included in Powerplay as a separate energy type. Players have no influence on the way the heat for the heat network is produced. The associated CO₂ emissions per petajoule (PJ) are fixed and taken directly from the ETM. This keeps the climate impact of heat networks consistent with the underlying, validated data.

Scaling down power plants

When scaling down conventional (gas/coal) power plants, Powerplay follows a fixed but linear order. Plants with the highest CO₂ emissions are closed first. In practice, this means that coal-fired power plants disappear first and gas-fired plants with the lowest CO₂ emissions are phased out last. This aligns with the ETM's scenarios.

Fixed consumption profile

Energy use follows fixed patterns, but varies by hour, day and season. Because Powerplay works with annual averages, it is not possible to match production and demand in the short term (hour/day/week). Variations in peaks and troughs of energy consumption and production are therefore not modelled separately.

Hydrogen production

Powerplay's calculation model does not (yet) distinguish between grey, blue or green hydrogen. If there is demand for hydrogen, available energy surplus is used first. If this is insufficient, natural gas is used for the production of hydrogen (grey hydrogen). This simplification makes the role of hydrogen clear without adding extra complexity.

Grid capacity

Within Powerplay's calculation model, grid capacity is included in a simplified way. When total annual electricity consumption exceeds a certain threshold value, expansion of the electricity network is necessary to prevent energy security from declining too sharply.

Affordability, energy security and satisfaction

Powerplay is substantively based on the system-oriented methodology of the International Energy Agency (IEA) . In its analyses and scenarios, the IEA uses an integrated approach to the energy system, in which choices are assessed on their impact on affordability, energy security and sustainability.

The indicators affordability, energy security and societal satisfaction are currently shown qualitatively in Powerplay on a scale of 1 to 5. These scores are adjusted per measure, but are not (yet) directly linked to the underlying calculation model. They serve to give players insight into direction and trade-offs, not as an exact quantification.

Spatial limitation

Powerplay deliberately does not include a spatial limitation, such as available physical space or specific location choices. The goal of the game is to provide insight into the functional coherence of the energy system and the effects of policy choices on CO₂ emissions, energy security and affordability.

Raw materials and circularity

Powerplay deliberately does not include the raw materials and circularity needed for the energy transition. Although these themes are of great importance, Powerplay's focus is on the functioning of the energy system: the balance between energy demand, supply, CO₂ emissions, affordability and energy security. Raw material flows and circular chains require additional assumptions, as this is not part of the Energy Transition Model on which Powerplay is based.

Curious about our dataset?

Would you like to view our data or check whether it is correct? Then get in touch with us.

Powerplay methodology

The International Energy Agency (IEA) distinguishes six phases (read more here) for the integration of solar and wind energy, in which renewable sources gain an ever greater influence on the functioning of the energy system. For Powerplay, this methodology has been simplified into four phases. The four phases in Powerplay let players experience step by step how the energy system shifts from energy saving and sustainability, via electrification and storage, to full system integration with flexibility and sustainable molecules. This simplification makes the dynamics of renewable energy integration understandable, while the underlying logic of the IEA phasing remains intact.

Effect for the player

Thanks to the simplifications, Powerplay remains clear and understandable, while the outcomes align substantively with the logic and data of the Energy Transition Model. Powerplay shows which choices matter, how they influence one another and where the main tensions in the energy system lie, without getting bogged down in technical details.